Air cargo is going through a global adjustment driven by shifts in e-commerce patterns. Although volumes continue to grow, rates and profitability are showing clear signs of pressure.
The industry closed November with better-than-expected results. However, the market is already preparing for a more complex environment in 2026.
Solid growth, but clear signs of pressure
Air cargo demand grew 5% year over year in November, supported by stronger performance since September. The market is pointing to growth of around 4% in 2025, although with less momentum than in previous years.
The biggest shift is the slowdown in e-commerce. After two years of strong expansion, growth is beginning to stabilize, especially in Asia and China, which have historically been the main engines of the market.
Falling rates and competitive pressure
Global air cargo spot rates fell 5% year over year, reaching $2.73 per kilogram. This adjustment reflects more aggressive competition among airlines to gain market share.
Routes such as Europe–North America recorded their first annual decline. In contrast, Northeast Asia showed greater stability, while Southeast Asia faced steeper declines due to increased available capacity.
Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs have had a smaller-than-expected impact, with a real effect of around 10%–12%. Even so, uncertainty persists and could intensify in 2026.
Restrictions on the “de minimis” regime in both the United States and Europe are altering air cargo flows. China has reduced shipments to the U.S. while strengthening routes to Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
The role of forwarders and technology
Logistics companies are adapting by specializing in sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and technology. These verticals have supported demand in a weaker environment.
In addition, the adoption of artificial intelligence and digital agents is helping reduce costs and improve efficiency. This transformation is redefining how air cargo operates globally.
Air cargo is going through a transition marked by the slowdown of e-commerce, pressure on rates, and the reorganization of trade routes. The market will continue to grow, but in an environment of greater competition and volatility.
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Sources
Jeffrey, R. (2025, 4 diciembre). Air cargo predicted to pick up in second half of 2026. Aircargo News. https://www.aircargonews.net/data-news/air-cargo-predicted-to-pick-up-in-second-half-of-2026/1080988.article
Morrow-Roberson, C. (2025, 5 diciembre). Forwarders prepare for another year of volatility. Aircargo News. https://www.aircargonews.net/freight-forwarders/forwarders-prepare-for-another-year-of-volatility/1080976.article
STAT Times. (2025, 8 diciembre). Air cargo volumes rises 5% in November as e-commerce growth slows. The STAT Trade Times. https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/air-cargo-volumes-rises-5-in-november-as-e-commerce-growth-slows-1357404
